Thursday Update

Looks like a very nice day with the NWS rather uncharacteristically gushing about “possibly the nicest day of the summer”.  Bear in mind however that the scope for trouble is far greater in soaring forecasts than beach forecasts.  See below under cautions.

Synoptics
Solidly post-frontal with high pressure building through Friday.
Instability
BL is forecast to be about 7,000 ft and should produce 3 – 5 kt climbs.
Clouds
There should be at least some Cu but blue areas are possible.  Both the SkySight and HRRR models show a band of small temperature/dewpoint separation between 24,000 ft and 30,000 ft.  This could produce significant cloud cover.  The KABE TAF has FEW250 which supports the idea of some clouds, and the satellite loop clearly shows cloud moving our way.
Wind
NW, 10 kts
Cautions
High cloud could cause problems and there is still some chance of smoke though not as much as we saw for the past few days.
 
QV Thursday July 22 1200Z

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