Weekend Wx Update

Uvalde conditions on the ground – not so sure about the air.  For Saturday the wind forecast remains ~20 kt West, enough to break up thermals and impact achieved speed.  The HRRR fails to clarify things and in fact rather muddies the water in predicting significantly lower BL tops and more likely blue conditions than other models.  Both e NWS discussion and the KABE TAF call for at least some cu  by mid-afternoon.  On balance it looks like blue to ~6,000 ft until about 2:00 PM and then an increasing chance of some cu.

Sunday might be a better day but it will also be the hottest of this, the first heatwave of the year.  I’ll take a closer look at Sunday early this evening.

QV, Saturday June 5 1200Z