Soaring Forecast for Sunday/Monday 18/18 Jun
Synoptics
The low pressure system which gave us unsettled weather is moving away to the NE where it still has the potential to harass the R2N contest, leaving us under the influence of an extensive if weak area of high pressure and the associated weak anticyclonic flow.
Instability
Bothe Sunday and Monday should have mixed layers of about 6,000 ft, enough to make Cu likely on Sunday at about 6,500 ft msl, rather less likely on Monday when drier air and a ~500 ft decrease in mixed layer height could combine to make the day blue.
Clouds
Sunday: Cu at 6,500 ft msl. Monday probably blue with climbs to 5,000-6,000 ft msl
Winds
Sunday NW, <10 kt. Monday ~5 kt SE.
APOLOGIES
My forecast for last Sunday was pretty badly off – I made the forecast Friday PM and never got around to amending it. Forecasts age rapidly.
QV 2023-06-17 2100 V
Wind will play a much larger role than is normal for mid-June. Models in good agreement that wind at the top of the BL will be at least 25 kts.from the NW. Surface winds less of course but the resulting shear is going to be a factor too. Surface gusts to ~25 kts are to … Read more
Pretty much a guaranteed good day with light Westerly winds and lift to 6 – 7 kft. Very dry airmass so we may see some blue areas. Any cu that form will do so at about 7,000 ft msl. I plan to launch from N57 where we have an operation set to go and I … Read more
Even drier air and a BL not forecast to develop much over 6,000 ft should combine to produce a blue day. The optimist might point to yesterday and hope for cu, realistically expect blue and be happy if I am wrong. QV Jun 5 1200Z
Nice weekend coming up, in the air and on the ground. Dry air on the surface makes for comfort but not for cu. Any cu on Saturday would be at about 7,000 ft but don’t count on much more than climbs to ~6,000 ft msl in the blue. Chances for cu are however better on … Read more
Cu at 7,500 ft – we should be flying.
Looks like a washout. The synoptic picture is unusual in that the low pressure area is south of us and the high north. This is just the opposite of the classic ridge day set up with strong NE winds rather than NW. There is just a chance that Sunday will produce some soarable weather but … Read more
The slow moving coastal low pressure area which has produced sustained strong NW winds for three days will move to the NE but not without producing one more day with a NW flow and very dry air. For Saturday expect surface and BL winds to be <15 kts with possible 20 kt gusts. Should see … Read more
The slow moving coastal low pressure area at the Canadian borderwill drag a second front through on Thursday, maintaining the strong NW winds and ushering in very dry air. Thursday and Friday look very blue and very windy with surface gusts to 30+ mph. Both days will see strong ridge conditions. Saturday will remain under … Read more
KPHL 262054Z FM271700 30020G30KT P6SM BKN150 Wednesday looks pretty marginal with very strong winds and likely excess cloud. Thursday – Sat should all be decent soaring with a lot less wind. I’ll do another forecast on Wednesday but my feeling now is that we should plan to be flying T,F,S, and S. QV 4/26 2120A … Read more
A slow moving extensive area of low pressure to the W/NW and a coastal high will bring a meandering warm front our way, producing extensive cloud cover but no precip on Saturday, and sunny conditions on Sunday. Both days look quite stable and the soaring on either day will be for the birds only. Light … Read more