Region 2N Forecast, VT 18Z Saturday Jun 18

This is about right fror PGC also.

Synoptics

We are now post-frontal with a secondary trough being dragged behind.  Conditions are however anomalous given the synoptic picture with rather small temperature/dew point spreads at the surface and a poorly developed boundary layer – the former will limit cloudbases to about 4,000 ft msl, the latter in combination with the strong winds will make climbs weak and tricky.

Instability

As noted above, the BL  is anomalously shallow at about 4,000 ft.  This might actually be helpful since it will liit mixing down of stronger winds aloft.  SkySight B/S ratios of 3 – 4 seem plausible so climbs will be a struggle and  3 kts at best.

Wind

Pressure gradient has tightened and winds at the top of the BL are  now forecast to be 30+ kts.  Surface gusts of 25 kts or possibly more are possible.  As of writing (1145Z) KMSV is already reporting gusts to 21 kt.  SkySight has average BL winds 25 – 30 kts from the NW.

Clouds

Cu should form at about 4,000 ft msl.  Both the KABE TAF and the SkySight soundings bring in a BKN layer at about 9,000 ft by mid – late afternoon.

Concerns

Strong winds, a shallow BL and low cloud bases will make for a demanding day.

Tasking Considerations

I’d rather be the weatherman than the task advisor, however I think given today’s forecast conditions and the expectation of a much better day Sunday I would exercise extreme caution today.

QV 2022-06-18 12Z

Leave a Comment