“rising thermal profiles, will equate to high temperatures 3 to 5 degrees warmer compared to yesterday (or lower 90s for most areas). We will also have another day of smoke with restrictions in visibility.” So, as the old saw has it – if you liked yesterday you’ll love today. With better weather due Thursday I’m … Read more

Monday July 19 Update

Synoptics We are now post-frontal with the chance of some associated troughs passing thru the Lehigh Valley area this PM.   Instability We should see a very good BL of about 7,000 ft and can expect 3 – 5 kt lift.   Clouds Cu at about 5,000 ft msl by noon, rising to ~6,500 ft.  … Read more

Encampment Weather

With an expected frontal passage late Sunday and a second late Wednesday we look set for a decent week of soaring (nice timing for the encampment).  M. T, W, T should all be soarable with Monday and Thursday looking like the best days.  Friday not promising. I’ll be putting out updates so keep an eye … Read more

Sat AM update

There is a lot of cloud around which does not seem to be going anywhere.  Per yesterday’s forecast the day looks set to develop late and it could be 3:00 PM before we get to 4,000 ft.  There is also a threat of OD moving from West to East. Still the best day we are … Read more

Weekend Wx

A weak cold front which should clear the local area by 0600Z Saturday will stall and backup by 18Z Saturday, dragging a trough tied to the lingering low across the state. A developing low pressure area currently centered ovr Kansas will intensify and move rapidly East bringing moisture and a much increased chance for rain … Read more

Wednesday/Thursday Wx

Both days have very good forecast BL’s of about 6,500 ft msl.  Both are also very dry so there is a good chance of blue conditions, rather more likely Wednesday  than Thursday. Wind NW both days, 10-15 kts Wednesday, 5 – 10 kts Thursday.  Can’t be more specific about Cu but if climbs in the … Read more

Weekend Soaring and Mid-week Outlook

Hard to see much if any lift developing on either day with Sunday carrying the additional burden of increased precip probability.  Saturday training operations should be OK under a 4,000 ft msl ceiling.  About the same for Sunday provided it’s not raining.  Grass fields are likely to be wet although PGC webcams show no standing … Read more

Sunday Wx Update

Uvalde conditions on the ground again, and again not so sure about the air. Saturday’s forecast turned out quite well (PIREPS always welcome!) which gives me a bit more confidence in today’s which looks rather similar.  Climbs to about 6,000 ft by 2:00 PM with a few cu appearing as the days gets hotter.  KABE … Read more

Weekend Wx Update

Uvalde conditions on the ground – not so sure about the air.  For Saturday the wind forecast remains ~20 kt West, enough to break up thermals and impact achieved speed.  The HRRR fails to clarify things and in fact rather muddies the water in predicting significantly lower BL tops and more likely blue conditions than … Read more

Weekend Wx

Saturday has some troubling features for XC flight: BL winds WNW could be 25 kt and the combination of relatively dry air and a predicted BL top of about 5,000 ft msl could produce blue conditions.  Lift could be broken. Sunday won’t be troubled by wind which is expected to be less than ~10 kts … Read more