Soaring Forecast for Sunday/Monday 18/18 Jun
Synoptics
The low pressure system which gave us unsettled weather is moving away to the NE where it still has the potential to harass the R2N contest, leaving us under the influence of an extensive if weak area of high pressure and the associated weak anticyclonic flow.
Instability
Bothe Sunday and Monday should have mixed layers of about 6,000 ft, enough to make Cu likely on Sunday at about 6,500 ft msl, rather less likely on Monday when drier air and a ~500 ft decrease in mixed layer height could combine to make the day blue.
Clouds
Sunday: Cu at 6,500 ft msl. Monday probably blue with climbs to 5,000-6,000 ft msl
Winds
Sunday NW, <10 kt. Monday ~5 kt SE.
APOLOGIES
My forecast for last Sunday was pretty badly off – I made the forecast Friday PM and never got around to amending it. Forecasts age rapidly.
QV 2023-06-17 2100 V
Synoptics We are now post-frontal with the chance of some associated troughs passing thru the Lehigh Valley area this PM. Instability We should see a very good BL of about 7,000 ft and can expect 3 – 5 kt lift. Clouds Cu at about 5,000 ft msl by noon, rising to ~6,500 ft. … Read more
With an expected frontal passage late Sunday and a second late Wednesday we look set for a decent week of soaring (nice timing for the encampment). M. T, W, T should all be soarable with Monday and Thursday looking like the best days. Friday not promising. I’ll be putting out updates so keep an eye … Read more
Between 7/17 and 7/25/21 you can fly every day for 9 days! And during the encampment week, there will be ground school, simulator check-out, check-rides and probably a first solo or two or… Plus, the weather is guaranteed to be stellar – as it has been for several years in a row on this legendary … Read more
There is a lot of cloud around which does not seem to be going anywhere. Per yesterday’s forecast the day looks set to develop late and it could be 3:00 PM before we get to 4,000 ft. There is also a threat of OD moving from West to East. Still the best day we are … Read more
A weak cold front which should clear the local area by 0600Z Saturday will stall and backup by 18Z Saturday, dragging a trough tied to the lingering low across the state. A developing low pressure area currently centered ovr Kansas will intensify and move rapidly East bringing moisture and a much increased chance for rain … Read more
Here again a selection of weather tools. May the best weather win:Airnet:http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?Submit=Go&sta=KDYL&state=PA Wunderground:https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/pa/hilltown/40.32,-75.24 Windy:https://www.windy.com/40.342/-75.253?39.863,-75.253,8 Dr. Jack:http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/NAM/NE/index.html
Both days have very good forecast BL’s of about 6,500 ft msl. Both are also very dry so there is a good chance of blue conditions, rather more likely Wednesday than Thursday. Wind NW both days, 10-15 kts Wednesday, 5 – 10 kts Thursday. Can’t be more specific about Cu but if climbs in the … Read more
Hard to see much if any lift developing on either day with Sunday carrying the additional burden of increased precip probability. Saturday training operations should be OK under a 4,000 ft msl ceiling. About the same for Sunday provided it’s not raining. Grass fields are likely to be wet although PGC webcams show no standing … Read more
Uvalde conditions on the ground again, and again not so sure about the air. Saturday’s forecast turned out quite well (PIREPS always welcome!) which gives me a bit more confidence in today’s which looks rather similar. Climbs to about 6,000 ft by 2:00 PM with a few cu appearing as the days gets hotter. KABE … Read more
Uvalde conditions on the ground – not so sure about the air. For Saturday the wind forecast remains ~20 kt West, enough to break up thermals and impact achieved speed. The HRRR fails to clarify things and in fact rather muddies the water in predicting significantly lower BL tops and more likely blue conditions than … Read more