Soaring Forecast for Sunday/Monday 18/18 Jun
Synoptics
The low pressure system which gave us unsettled weather is moving away to the NE where it still has the potential to harass the R2N contest, leaving us under the influence of an extensive if weak area of high pressure and the associated weak anticyclonic flow.
Instability
Bothe Sunday and Monday should have mixed layers of about 6,000 ft, enough to make Cu likely on Sunday at about 6,500 ft msl, rather less likely on Monday when drier air and a ~500 ft decrease in mixed layer height could combine to make the day blue.
Clouds
Sunday: Cu at 6,500 ft msl. Monday probably blue with climbs to 5,000-6,000 ft msl
Winds
Sunday NW, <10 kt. Monday ~5 kt SE.
APOLOGIES
My forecast for last Sunday was pretty badly off – I made the forecast Friday PM and never got around to amending it. Forecasts age rapidly.
QV 2023-06-17 2100 V
We are pre-frontal and today continues to look marginal at best as, to the prior cautions on unpleasant conditions on the ground and low ceilings, we can add SW winds gusting to 20+ kts and an increasing chance of rain by mid-afternoon. We may have a window from late morning to mid-afternoon. Tuesday should be … Read more
You should have been here last week…Well now it’s this week and it starts off ugly with Monday’s surface dewpoints around 75F and temperatures around 85F so we are likely to have to deal with a 2,000 ft ceiling and enervating conditions on the ground. Tuesday should be a lot better with 5,000 ft msl … Read more
The April edition of the SSA magazine has the perhaps best explanation yet, why a dropping head wind on final may cause you to come up short. Worth a read!
We will be voting on some by laws changes to prepare the club for the next 80 years! See separate emails and physical letters sent to your home for more details!
A weekend read that may save your life. A detailed analysis by Clemens of a recent fatal glider accident in Colorado. I don’t think this issue is just a concern out West: https://chessintheair.com/invisible-microburst-kills-expert-glider-pilot/
The SSA offers several scholarships for CFI-G, Youth members… Check the latest SSA magazine for details
I’m doing (remote) wx for the Hobbs contest until July 2 so this forecast and its preparation are brief. Saturday looks like the better of two soarable days with cu at ~5,500 ft msl and average climbs of 3 kt, Some chance of OD around Blairstown. Sunday looks blue for the GCup South, North OK … Read more
Another ridge day, another T/O and landing challenge. Winds at the top of the BL still about 30 kts and KABE TAF has: FM191800 32014G27KT P6SM FEW250 which also implies blue conditions. I’m opting out in favor of Monday which although probably blue should give us a 5,000 ft BL and winds from the NW … Read more
Persistent strong north westerly winds will remain a problem with surface gusts again expected to be 25 kts. Much better BL however and cu are likely at ~6,500 ft. Expect an update before 0800h Sunday.
This is about right fror PGC also. Synoptics We are now post-frontal with a secondary trough being dragged behind. Conditions are however anomalous given the synoptic picture with rather small temperature/dew point spreads at the surface and a poorly developed boundary layer – the former will limit cloudbases to about 4,000 ft msl, the latter … Read more