Soaring Forecast for Sunday/Monday 18/18 Jun
Synoptics
The low pressure system which gave us unsettled weather is moving away to the NE where it still has the potential to harass the R2N contest, leaving us under the influence of an extensive if weak area of high pressure and the associated weak anticyclonic flow.
Instability
Bothe Sunday and Monday should have mixed layers of about 6,000 ft, enough to make Cu likely on Sunday at about 6,500 ft msl, rather less likely on Monday when drier air and a ~500 ft decrease in mixed layer height could combine to make the day blue.
Clouds
Sunday: Cu at 6,500 ft msl. Monday probably blue with climbs to 5,000-6,000 ft msl
Winds
Sunday NW, <10 kt. Monday ~5 kt SE.
APOLOGIES
My forecast for last Sunday was pretty badly off – I made the forecast Friday PM and never got around to amending it. Forecasts age rapidly.
QV 2023-06-17 2100 V
In a stand of tall trees off Hilltown Pike, you turn into a driveway marked by a sign. 500 feet out the view opens up to a wide grass field sitting atop the highest point in the area. You have entered a place close to suburbia, yet apart from it. While here, that busy hectic … Read more
Oh baby it’s cold outside… So why? The clear air, spectacular scenery, a distinctly different type of airmass to experience. The highest altitudes at PGC are typically achieved in the winter months. And then there is the wave, whith a great explanation given in this just released video by “Chess in the Air”: https://youtu.be/cowoZJj3KJY We’ll … Read more
It ain’t a Hemingway. Long sentences, repetition and the elevator becomes flippers. A former member had recommended this book. He was well on his way to the airlines and mentioned, that he still rereads this book. Hmmm. While geared towards power pilots, many of the topics apply equally to gliders. If nothing else, the author … Read more
Sunday through Tuesday all look like ridge days with Monday shaping up to be preferred for local ridges. Sunday wind angles are OK but not comfortable at 290 degree, strength is adequate. Sunday is also likely to see extensive SC development. Monday the NW flow veers to 310+, a better angle for local ridges. … Read more
Here is a link to “Tales of the Blue Fly”, the collection of writings by Bob Fitch – a Blairstown legend. Many great stories, among them a rather interesting “retrieve” described in “A walk in the woods”: https://soaringeconomist.files.wordpress.com/2019/05/bluefly-bob-fitch.pdf
If you have not read this before, a good reminder to always use your own judgement: http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_On_Safety_Soaring_May_1987.pdf
And a good read of best practices for every soaring pilot: https://chessintheair.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SafetyinMountainFlying.pdf
See this interesting article from “Chess in the air” author Clemens Ceipek:
Pretty clear cut choice in favor of Sunday which will be post-frontal, dry and pleasant while Saturday will prolong the string of ghastly weather we have been enduring. Assuming no rain on Saturday about the best to be expected is 4,000 ft msl, probably with cu. Sunday looks blue and not particularly strong with the … Read more
Post frontal high pressure will give us a second soaring day on Saturday, albeit not as good as Friday. As the high slides East on Sunday, SW winds will pick up and the airmass will become more stable and may not support soaring. Saturday: It’s reasonable, but not guaranteed to expect cu at about … Read more