Soaring safety – a great resource
There are many good sites, blogs and YouTube channels. Here is one of them, with a focus on soaring safety: https://chessintheair.com/risks-and-risk-mitigation/
Weekend 2023-06-18/19 by KellermanRichard
Soaring Forecast for Sunday/Monday 18/18 Jun
Synoptics
The low pressure system which gave us unsettled weather is moving away to the NE where it still has the potential to harass the R2N contest, leaving us under the influence of an extensive if weak area of high pressure and the associated weak anticyclonic flow.
Instability
Bothe Sunday and Monday should have mixed layers of about 6,000 ft, enough to make Cu likely on Sunday at about 6,500 ft msl, rather less likely on Monday when drier air and a ~500 ft decrease in mixed layer height could combine to make the day blue.
Clouds
Sunday: Cu at 6,500 ft msl. Monday probably blue with climbs to 5,000-6,000 ft msl
Winds
Sunday NW, <10 kt. Monday ~5 kt SE.
APOLOGIES
My forecast for last Sunday was pretty badly off – I made the forecast Friday PM and never got around to amending it. Forecasts age rapidly.
QV 2023-06-17 2100 V
Weekend Wx
Miserable pretty much does it. If you want details, low cloud and possible rain/storms likely both days and nothing I can see which suggests soarable conditions are possible either day, with Saturday likely to be IMC all day and Sunday cloudbase less than 3,000 ft msl. Medium and long range forecasts offer little in the … Read more
Sunday Update
Cancel yesterday’s forecast – strong WSW winds aloft pulling in moisture and blanketing us with mid and hi-level cloud. Reduced surface heating will be hard pressed to develop much more than a 3,000 ft BL.. On the bright side it’s going to be really pleasant on the ground…. QV Sunday August 15 1145Z
Weekend Wx
Synoptics A cold front will cross PA during the day on Saturday, bringing (slowly) some relief from the high humidity we have been seeing. It will also bring the chance of rain and thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Sunday should be a great day to be out with dewpoints in the mid- to low 50”s (they have … Read more
Flight recorder, OLC and SeeYou oh my
Are you of the whata coulda donna type? a Flight recorder along with OLC and SeeYou is the perfect combination. The cost? As little as nothing. What do you get? A full 3D flight replay with number of thermals, glides, the works. What does it take? A flight recorder. On an Android phone, that could … Read more
Saturday Update
Synoptics High pressure starts moving offshore and a warm front is advancing from the West. Two features of today’s otherwise good forecast could cause trouble: Increasing hi cloud cover and some spreadout to stratocu.. Instability Most models show a 6 – 7 kft BL thru late afternoon but any significant Ci is going to … Read more
Friday AM Update and Weekend Outlook
The high cloud cover yesterday probably spoiled what might have been a record day. Conditions at PGC were barely sustainable until about 1:00 PM. I launched at about 1:30 PM with a lot of high cloud cover and ugly looking black Cu. I set out for Blairstown at about 2:00 PM under a much improved … Read more
Thursday Update
Looks like a very nice day with the NWS rather uncharacteristically gushing about “possibly the nicest day of the summer”. Bear in mind however that the scope for trouble is far greater in soaring forecasts than beach forecasts. See below under cautions. Synoptics Solidly post-frontal with high pressure building through Friday. Instability BL is forecast to … Read more
Wednesday Forecast, Three Day Outlook
Following another day of smoke we will see a decent frontal passage later today which should deliver three days of good soaring. The NWS went so far as to comment that “Thursday could be the nicest day of the summer so far”. With the caveat that there is still a decreased chance of some smoke … Read more
Tuesday
“rising thermal profiles, will equate to high temperatures 3 to 5 degrees warmer compared to yesterday (or lower 90s for most areas). We will also have another day of smoke with restrictions in visibility.” So, as the old saw has it – if you liked yesterday you’ll love today. With better weather due Thursday I’m … Read more